All that cap space

[mr grieves]

The Leafs have a ton of it this year -- probably about $15m after signing the RFAs -- but not so much after that. As for things to spend this short-term cap space on, some have speculated on a massive one-year Tavares deal (unlikely given fears of freak injuries) or a big contract for Thorton (more likely). The number of possibilities for signings seems pretty constrained by the need to re-sign Matthews, Marner, and Kapanen next season.

One idea floating around in Ian Tulloch's recent Athletic articles is interesting: taking on bad contracts to make it easier for contenders to keep their cores together (WSH wants to re-sign Carolson, but has Orpik, WPG has contracts up but Kulikov taking up space) or to help other teams clear space for runs at Tavares (PHI's got a contract or two making it hard to mount a serious offer).

Such deals are typically associated with rebuilding/building teams (Arizona, Vegas, Carolina) rather than those windows are opening, but I wonder if the new, more forward looking Leafs management might look at this as an option to acquire some young, cost-controlled talent. Tulloch suggested the Philly scenario as a way to get Gudas, filling the top-4 RHD need, but he also identifies Roslovic and Petan from WPG as possibilities. Seems to me an interesting speculative exercise that explores a scenario that's more possible now that Dubas has replaced Lou. 

 

[Zee]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

One thing to keep in mind is that we really don't want to be forced to go over the cap next season because of bonuses, because we don't want to carry an overage into the 19/20 season. That's when Matthews and Marner's contracts kick in and if we aren't able to get rid of Marleau's cap hit things will be very tight that season.

So we should be trying to keep about $3-4mil in cap space open next season, and that's including Horton's cap hit.

 

[jdh1]

One thing to keep in mind is that we really don't want to be forced to go over the cap next season because of bonuses, because we don't want to carry an overage into the 19/20 season. That's when Matthews and Marner's contracts kick in and if we aren't able to get rid of Marleau's cap hit things will be very tight that season.

So we should be trying to keep about $3-4mil in cap space open next season, and that's including Horton's cap hit.

I,m noticing that you as well as a few others are not including Nylanders contract value in the cap.Do you except the idea that he,s being traded or put on a bridge deal.

If traded then we have to absorb the contract coming back,which I,m thinking would be same value unless there are picks involved.

 

[Kin]

Seems to me like given where the Leafs are and where we'd like them to be then helping a contender, particularly an Eastern conference team, to keep their core together or potentially land Tavares in return for a #4 sort of defenseman could end up being awfully counter-productive.

 

[mr grieves]

Seems to me like given where the Leafs are and where we'd like them to be then helping a contender, particularly an Eastern conference team, to keep their core together or potentially land Tavares in return for a #4 sort of defenseman could end up being awfully counter-productive.

Yeah, I don't like all possible variations of the idea -- helping Philadelphia get Tavares seems particularly unwise -- so there are certainly limits on this...

But, in several cases, helping a team overcommit to a UFA defenseman or re-sign their RFAs by taking a few assets off their hands seems to me a win from the Leafs perspective. First, if a team like Winnipeg or Washington is determined to re-sign certain players and can only do so by unloading a bad contract with pick/prospect sweeteners, someone's going to benefit from that -- why should it be Arizona or whoever and not us? Second, if you're sufficiently confident in your own core (I suspect the Leafs management is), Washington, say, keeping Carlson shouldn't be as frightening a proposition as complementing your own team is enticing -- they're not getting worse (though losing depth), but we're already good and getting better (either directly, if the prospect is a well-scouted catch, or indirectly if it gives you assets to spend elsewhere).

Helping anyone else put together a pitch for Tavares in order to fill a very specific and ultimately not that valuable need (top-4 RHD) seems dumb though, yes. 

 

[Kin]

But, in several cases, helping a team overcommit to a UFA defenseman or re-sign their RFAs by taking a few assets off their hands seems to me a win from the Leafs perspective. First, if a team like Winnipeg or Washington is determined to re-sign certain players and can only do so by unloading a bad contract with pick/prospect sweeteners, someone's going to benefit from that -- why should it be Arizona or whoever and not us? Second, if you're sufficiently confident in your own core (I suspect the Leafs management is), Washington, say, keeping Carlson shouldn't be as frightening a proposition as complementing your own team is enticing -- they're not getting worse (though losing depth), but we're already good and getting better (either directly, if the prospect is a well-scouted catch, or indirectly if it gives you assets to spend elsewhere).

I think that generally speaking the risk/reward on those sorts of moves looks pretty enticing right up until you get a look at what the actual reward is.

And, you know, likewise I don't think that the Caps(or whoever) would be as willing to give the Leafs as sweet a deal on that as they might a team in another conference like Arizona for the exact same reason(to say nothing of the fact that I don't entirely agree that they'll be able to find a partner no matter what).

 

[mr grieves]

I think that generally speaking the risk/reward on those sorts of moves looks pretty enticing right up until you get a look at what the actual reward is.

I think that's equally true of, say, trading expiring UFAs. The 'reward' of assets/unknowns probably isn't as exciting as the 'risk' of weakening your team is frightening. But, if we're committed to the idea of prudent asset management, then it's still the right move -- barring any better use of one year of cap space, that is.

And, you know, likewise I don't think that the Caps(or whoever) would be as willing to give the Leafs as sweet a deal on that as they might a team in another conference like Arizona for the exact same reason(to say nothing of the fact that I don't entirely agree that they'll be able to find a partner no matter what).

In that past, they've found partners in the western conference. Arizona and Vegas, in the last year, found partners in the east. Maybe the list of possible trades is limited by intra-conference competition, but, unless no one in the west has a bad contracts with a year or two left and several RFAs to sign, I doubt there are no partners out there.

But maybe the Leafs end up going into next season $5-10m below the cap ceiling. Seems sort of a waste.

 

[bustaheims]

But maybe the Leafs end up going into next season $5-10m below the cap ceiling. Seems sort of a waste.

Unless you're including LTIR space as part of that - which you shouldn't, as LTIR players still count towards the cap, and going into LTIR space means any bonuses get pushed to the next season's cap - I doubt they go into the season with near that amount. They need to sign at least 2 defencemen and 3 forwards just to ice a full line-up, and that included big money to Nylander. Really, there will be 6 or 7 new contracts on the book next season (without them trading any away/buying anyone out, at least), and those contracts will probably take up $12M-$14M of the ~$18M space they'll have if the cap hits $80M (5 guys at league minimum + Nylander at $6M per is $9.5M right there). And, as CtB mentioned, it's in their best interest to leave some space between themselves and the ceiling to avoid/minimize carryover penalties.

 

[Frank E]

One thing to keep in mind is that we really don't want to be forced to go over the cap next season because of bonuses, because we don't want to carry an overage into the 19/20 season. That's when Matthews and Marner's contracts kick in and if we aren't able to get rid of Marleau's cap hit things will be very tight that season.

So we should be trying to keep about $3-4mil in cap space open next season, and that's including Horton's cap hit.

Do you have a current source for a spreadsheet that someone smarter than me has filled out into 2020ish?

 

[mr grieves]

But maybe the Leafs end up going into next season $5-10m below the cap ceiling. Seems sort of a waste.

Unless you're including LTIR space as part of that - which you shouldn't, as LTIR players still count towards the cap, and going into LTIR space means any bonuses get pushed to the next season's cap - I doubt they go into the season with near that amount. They need to sign at least 2 defencemen and 3 forwards just to ice a full line-up, and that included big money to Nylander. Really, there will be 6 or 7 new contracts on the book next season (without them trading any away/buying anyone out, at least), and those contracts will probably take up $12M-$14M of the ~$18M space they'll have if the cap hits $80M (5 guys at league minimum + Nylander at $6M per is $9.5M right there). And, as CtB mentioned, it's in their best interest to leave some space between themselves and the ceiling to avoid/minimize carryover penalties.

I'm really at a loss to see how that works... Capfriendly has 17 players on the roster and $26m in space. The AHL roster will be graduating players to the Leafs and we've got RFAs that'll take up most of those spots.

Filling out the roster: Recall Dermott and figure Borgman (or another Marlie defenseman) and Grundstrom (or another Marlie forward) make the team... Sign Nylander, Johnsson, and Holl, and we're at a full roster... New and recalled contracts in bold (26m in space - 17.5m in cap hits added to the roster), and looks like:

Marleau (6.5) - Nylander (7) - Brown (2) = 15.5m
Hyman (2.5) - Kadri (4.5) - Marner (1) = 8m
Martin (2.5) - Matthews (1) - Kapanen (1) = 4.5m
Johnsson (1.5) - Lindholm (1) - Marlie (1) = 3.5m
UFA-F (2) - Leivo (1) = 3m
Horton LTIR (but on the books) (5.5) = 5.5m

Rielly (5) - Zaitsev (4.5) = 9.5m
Gardiner (4) - Hainsey (3) = 7m
Dermott (1) - Borgman (1) =2m
Holl (1) - UFA-D (2) = 3m

Andersen (5) = 5m
Backup (1) = 1m

All together that's $67.5m. $69m with the Kessel retention. I rounded most of those cap hits up, and that's still, like, over $10m under an $80m cap, no?

 

[bustaheims]

I'm really at a loss to see how that works... Capfriendly has 17 players on the roster and $26m in space. The AHL roster will be graduating players to the Leafs and we've got RFAs that'll take up most of those spots.

One of those players is Horton, so, he doesn't count, but I did math wrong on the cap space available. It's been a long day. Even still, with any real upgrades to the team, you're most likely looking at less than $5M in space that isn't intentionally left unused - as you're also missing the $2.55M in overages from this season that will go against the cap in 18/19.

 

[Kin]

I think that's equally true of, say, trading expiring UFAs. The 'reward' of assets/unknowns probably isn't as exciting as the 'risk' of weakening your team is frightening. But, if we're committed to the idea of prudent asset management, then it's still the right move -- barring any better use of one year of cap space, that is.

Yeah, don't strain yourself too hard reaching that hard.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm really at a loss to see how that works... Capfriendly has 17 players on the roster and $26m in space. The AHL roster will be graduating players to the Leafs and we've got RFAs that'll take up most of those spots.

One of those players is Horton, so, he doesn't count, but I did math wrong on the cap space available. It's been a long day. Even still, with any real upgrades to the team, you're most likely looking at less than $5M in space that isn't intentionally left unused - as you're also missing the $2.55M in overages from this season that will go against the cap in 18/19.

And performance bonuses for Matthews and Marner. I'm assuming the intention is to not have any overages for 2019/2020 when they'll be in desperate need of cap space. Matthews should be at $3.8M and Marner at $1.8M assuming they hit all their bonuses again.

 

[herman]

Matthews and Marner?s potential bonuses total to 3.7M. Matthews has type b, which maxes at 2M+.85M from type a. Marner only has type a.

If we run Ozhiganov, or Lindholm, or the Swedish D, that?s another 850k each in potential bonuses.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

One of those players is Horton, so, he doesn't count, but I did math wrong on the cap space available. It's been a long day. Even still, with any real upgrades to the team, you're most likely looking at less than $5M in space that isn't intentionally left unused - as you're also missing the $2.55M in overages from this season that will go against the cap in 18/19.

With Kessel's $1.2mil, last season's $2.55mil overages, next seasons potential $4.5mil bonuses, and Horton's $5.3mil cap hit, we're looking at about $13.5mil in dead cap space next season.

 

[bustaheims]

With Kessel's $1.2mil, last season's $2.55mil overages, next seasons potential $4.5mil bonuses, and Horton's $5.3mil cap hit, we're looking at about $13.5mil in dead cap space next season.

I wouldn't consider the bonus money to be dead space, but, yeah, it's not great.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If we run Ozhiganov, or Lindholm, or the Swedish D, that?s another 850k each in potential bonuses.

It depends on what kind of bonuses are written into their contracts, but I'd say it's probably unlikely those guys hit any as long as they aren't strictly "play x amount of games" types.

Even when I just said $4.5mil I was sorta assuming that Dermott had some in his contract, but of course he doesn't. So Matthews and Marner combined have $3.7mil in potential bonuses. The team could budget for a little more but I doubt they'd need much more than that.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Speaking of cap space, I've read that San Jose and Minnesota may want to buy out the final year of Paul Martin and Tyler Ennis respectively. Would live the Leafs to buy some draft picks or prospects by taking one of those. Or could it give us a reasonable shot at prying Dumba from Minnesota?

 

[bustaheims]

Speaking of cap space, I've read that San Jose and Minnesota may want to buy out the final year of Paul Martin and Tyler Ennis respectively. Would live the Leafs to buy some draft picks or prospects by taking one of those. Or could it give us a reasonable shot at prying Dumba from Minnesota?

For the Leafs, the cap space is more valuable than the mid-round picks/middling prospects they'd be able to get out those deals. It's not worth spending more than $4M of space this season for a 3rd round pick. That space needs to be used to upgrade the roster.

And, no, picking up Ellis would not significantly move the needle in terms of the price for Dumba.