WCF: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche

[cw]

What are we even talking about here? The entire team essentially underperformed for 10yrs in the playoffs. If you want to exclude Marner, ok, but thats not how I see it. Is Marner over performing now or is his production now commensurate with being under a point per game for the Leafs in 9 playoff years? The same criticism is extended to the entire core 4. Obviously coaching and roster construction are not beyond criticism. I don't think your position could possibly be the core 4 performed as advertised, or that only Marner is beyond criticism, everything else was a problem.

Mitch Marner's .9 ppg with the Leafs is the 4th highest in franchise history (over 100 years, 41 playoff games played. .01 behind Sundin)
Gilmour & Sittler are the only two higher than 1 ppg but both played in higher scoring eras. If you adjust for scoring era, Marner probably passes Sittler.
Marner's .9 playoff ppg as a Leaf over 41 or more playoff games (half a season to get some decent data sampling) places him 72nd in NHL history out of 1586. He's inside the top 5% in NHL history - ahead of Matthews, Nylander & Tavares and all but Gilmour, Sittler & Sundin without adjustment for scoring era.

Marner & Matthews ppg suffered because they were clear targets as the team lacked the depth and two way play beyond the first line. So teams could 'shadow' them to force some 'underperformance'

But his ppg is not what won me over with Marner. He has always scored throughout his career. What got me was he is not that big or physically gifted but he's so darn smart defensively. That hurt his Toronto playoff ppg and Matthews because they would be used to help protect a lead. But I think that is what got all his coaches. He is almost Gretzky smart defensively - closer to an artist operating at a different level. I think Vegas embraces that. He's found a real home there because Stone, Eichel & Karlsson have also become exceptional two way players as well. They don't don't have to score gaudy ppg numbers because they keep it out of their own net so well. That philosophy and systemic play is a fantastic match for Marner and because a bunch of them are doing it, it frees the others up from shadows. That to me explains why he's blossomed some in the playoffs there: he's playing on a better team that won't tolerate oneway players like Nylander. They're all on the same page defensively.

That is a really interesting debate for teams this summer: there are gifted offensive players in this league. Nylander is one of them. But you can take a less gifted offensive player and teach him/develop him to play good defensive hockey in the other end of the ice and wind up with a more effective player over 200 feet. Marner might be (Eichel might be too) the most offensively gifted of Eichel, Stone & Karlsson but those four playing their defensive game (I shouldn't ignore their dmen and goalie ..) to smother the Avs is very intriguing. I'm very interested to see if they can continue it against the Canes.

EDIT: there is one other thing I should have mentioned. Marner is the shortest and lightest player on the team 6', 180lbs. They're all 6' or more. Nearly all are 194lbs or more. They're physical - maybe what Berube & Treliving wanted the Leafs to become. So he can stand a little taller and bigger because he's surrounded by guys who have got his back physically. Traditionally, that has always helped in hockey.

 

[Bender]

I think that says a lot about how bad Toronto players and teams have traditionally been over the years. I'm not saying Marner is a bad player, but I am saying relative to expectations and relative to the level of regular season success, they underperformed as a team with that collection of players on that team.

Vegas '26 is conditionally a lot different than Toronto '19 so it's very hard to compare the two directly even just from a cap perspective. You were never going to have the same level of depth given the cap realities at that time.

What they did to the Avs was special, but this isn't just well they got their best players back so now it's easy to suggest they run over the Avs. If they keep Cassidy do they even make the playoffs? In the West?? They were so close to getting bounced in round 1 as well by Utah of all teams. Unless you predicted Vegas was going to go on the run that they did this is all backward looking now that they've had success and proves to me more that every scenario is different and unpredictable.

The team has depth and is getting hot at the right time playing good hockey. This never happened with the Leafs, and we can put it down to whatever you want. You think Marner was possibly the lone bright spot on the team, fine. But I think as a team everyone generally shares the blame both individually and as a team over a 10yr span and truthfully there is very little that can reconcile our two different opinions. At the end of the day this era has been divisive and horrible from a playoff standpoint and I'm more than ready to turn the page entirely.

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

I'll say one last thing then I think it's time to move on, if we had a Carter Hart between the pipes last year we're not having this conversation. I wish Mitch good luck.

 

[bustaheims]

I'll say one last thing then I think it's time to move on, if we had a Carter Hart between the pipes last year we're not having this conversation. I wish Mitch good luck.

Goaltending wasn't the issue last year. No goalie wins with the pathetic efforts the team put forth in games 5 and 7 against Florida.

 

[cw]

I think that says a lot about how bad Toronto players and teams have traditionally been over the years. I'm not saying Marner is a bad player, but I am saying relative to expectations and relative to the level of regular season success, they underperformed as a team with that collection of players on that team.

I certainly never felt like they were a Cup favorite. But expectations? Aren't we responsible for our expectations to a significant degree? Mine were that as a top 4-8 team they had some kind of shot (depending on the season) but I never felt they were the favorite.

A few times they lost to the eventual Cup winner. Does it really matter what round that happened?

I never expected them to win a Cup so maybe I wasn't as disappointed with their results. As a fan, I hoped they would win and when they didn't, that was disappointing. So I never got that high or low.

 

[cw]

What they did to the Avs was special, but this isn't just well they got their best players back so now it's easy to suggest they run over the Avs. If they keep Cassidy do they even make the playoffs? In the West?? They were so close to getting bounced in round 1 as well by Utah of all teams. Unless you predicted Vegas was going to go on the run that they did this is all backward looking now that they've had success and proves to me more that every scenario is different and unpredictable.

I never predicted they would beat the Avs or be close to where they are right now. It didn't enter my mind.
I enjoyed watching them do it though.

 

[cw]

The team has depth and is getting hot at the right time playing good hockey. This never happened with the Leafs, and we can put it down to whatever you want. You think Marner was possibly the lone bright spot on the team, fine. But I think as a team everyone generally shares the blame both individually and as a team over a 10yr span and truthfully there is very little that can reconcile our two different opinions. At the end of the day this era has been divisive and horrible from a playoff standpoint and I'm more than ready to turn the page entirely.

I do not think Marner was the lone bright spot. Matthews, for example, was a bright or brighter spot at times (particularly in 2 way play) until injuries took their toll. Rielly had some good playoffs. Other performances varied over time. I could easily be overlooking someone. Coach Cassidy felt Marner was the Leafs best player when he only put up 4 pts in the 7 game series against Boston so I guess some subjective feelings may be involved. Over his 9 seasons as a Leaf, there's probably a fair case to be made that Marner was the best player for the Leafs in the playoffs and if not, he was right up there.

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

Goaltending wasn't the issue last year. No goalie wins with the pathetic efforts the team put forth in games 5 and 7 against Florida.

Your underestimating what a hot goalie does for a team, remember 2023? We pelted Bobrovsky with 52 shots in game 3 I think and lost, if we had that kind of goal tending last year there wouldn't have been a game 7.Vegas has that and a good D, they will be very hard to beat. But again time to move on .

 

[Bender]

I certainly never felt like they were a Cup favorite. But expectations? Aren't we responsible for our expectations to a significant degree? Mine were that as a top 4-8 team they had some kind of shot (depending on the season) but I never felt they were the favorite.

A few times they lost to the eventual Cup winner. Does it really matter what round that happened?

I never expected them to win a Cup so maybe I wasn't as disappointed with their results. As a fan, I hoped they would win and when they didn't, that was disappointing. So I never got that high or low.

They made it out of the second round twice in 10yrs. Maybe you're a dispassionate fan but I think the bar is objectively higher than the results.

 

[cw]

They made it out of the second round twice in 10yrs. Maybe you're a dispassionate fan but I think the bar is objectively higher than the results.

Here's an interesting stat

MacKinnon is one of the top playoff scorers over the last 10 years in on 35.8% of his teams goals

Marner in the playoffs plays half a minute less per game than MacKinnon, half a minute less PP time/game and 1.75 mins on the PK (while MacKinnon plays almost no PK). In spite of all those TOI handicaps, over the last 10 years, Marner is in on 34.4% of his team's goals.

Marner is not the problem. A healthy Matthews isn't either. They're both decent 200 foot players. Again, it is the supporting cast.
I get the fan disappointment. As a franchise, with the top talent they had, they underachieved. I just don't buy "Marner is the one they should have run out of town for this" - particularly when the UFA market was so weak.

Samsonov & Campbell seemed like nice guys but they weren't going to win anything with them. The bottom six and the D were lacking. Some of that was due to the high talent cost for rentals. Hang on to those draft picks and they could have had a decent, cost effective third line or a better, cost effective top 4. I blame the management more than the coaches or the players.

MLSE board lacks the patience to do it right. They blew it big time with this crew

 

[mr grieves]

Here's an interesting stat

MacKinnon is one of the top playoff scorers over the last 10 years in on 35.8% of his teams goals

Marner in the playoffs plays half a minute less per game than MacKinnon, half a minute less PP time/game and 1.75 mins on the PK (while MacKinnon plays almost no PK). In spite of all those TOI handicaps, over the last 10 years, Marner is in on 34.4% of his team's goals.

Marner is not the problem. A healthy Matthews isn't either. They're both decent 200 foot players. Again, it is the supporting cast.
I get the fan disappointment. As a franchise, with the top talent they had, they underachieved. I just don't buy "Marner is the one they should have run out of town for this" - particularly when the UFA market was so weak.

Samsonov & Campbell seemed like nice guys but they weren't going to win anything with them. The bottom six and the D were lacking. Some of that was due to the high talent cost for rentals. Hang on to those draft picks and they could have had a decent, cost effective third line or a better, cost effective top 4. I blame the management more than the coaches or the players.

MLSE board lacks the patience to do it right. They blew it big time with this crew

It is a bit of a straw man to say anyone was eager to see Marner run out of town so the Leafs could hit the UFA market. Marner was not, as you say, the problem, but trading him after 2021 or 2022 was probably the best solution available to solve the problem created by shedding all the cost-controlled talent chasing the veteran forward who was going to finally get them over the hump. They’d be in a better position today than they presently are.

They were impatient and short-sighted after they got Matthews, and then, when it didn’t work out, they froze.

 

[cw]

It is a bit of a straw man to say anyone was eager to see Marner run out of town so the Leafs could hit the UFA market. Marner was not, as you say, the problem, but trading him after 2021 or 2022 was probably the best solution available to solve the problem created by shedding all the cost-controlled talent chasing the veteran forward who was going to finally get them over the hump. They’d be in a better position today than they presently are.

They were impatient and short-sighted after they got Matthews, and then, when it didn’t work out, they froze.

I think Treliving was eager. When the media started on Marner (in part inflamed by Treliving musing about trading Marner), Treliving didn't make much of an effort to defend him.
Nylander's contract ended in 2023-24. He was always my pick to move. 100 foot player for $11.5M/yr vs coachable 200 foot player for $12M/yr. No brainer to solve the 'core 4 cap problem'
They mortgaged their future too soon with rentals

 

[Bender]

I don't have the energy to continue arguing considering neither of us will move on our opinions.

 

[mr grieves]

I think Treliving was eager. When the media started on Marner (in part inflamed by Treliving musing about trading Marner), Treliving didn't make much of an effort to defend him.
Nylander's contract ended in 2023-24. He was always my pick to move. 100 foot player for $11.5M/yr vs coachable 200 foot player for $12M/yr. No brainer to solve the 'core 4 cap problem'
They mortgaged their future too soon with rentals

I don’t think Treliving was eager to see Marner walk. And, all things being equal, sure, I would rather have a player like Marner than one like Nylander, but the important thing here is that Nylander wanted to be in Toronto, whereas Marner didn’t (and maybe that’s just because Marner is smarter and could see the team lacked the supping cast to really contend!).

Yes, they really screwed up when they decided to accelerate their contention window by doing the “own rental” thing with Bozak, JvR, others, let alone by sending out picks and prospects for rentals. Besides better positioning them for the last few years, it would've done Marner, Matthews, and Nylander good to experience real adversary early in their careers.