bustaheims said:
Magic number for the division down to 10. For a wildcard spot, it's 4 (I think, might be 3 depending on the tiebreaker).
The MLB tie-breaker rules for two teams are:
1) Best head-to-head record
2) Best intra-division record
3) Best intraleague record
4) Best record in the final 81 games (interleague games excluded)
5) Best record in the final (81 + n) games (interleague games excluded) until the tie is broken
The MLB tie-breaker rules for three or more teams are:
1) Number of series wins against all tied teams
2) Best record among tied teams in those games
3) Best record in intradivision games
4) Best record in final 81 games (interleague excluded)
5) Best record in final (81 + n) games (interleague excluded)
So a lot of scenarios are still technically in play to make things complicated.
If the Yankees and Blue Jays finish tied at the end of the year, the Jays have the tie-breaker based on season record (12-5 with 2 games remaining). That would give the Jays home-field advantage in a 1-game playoff to determine the division winner and presumably the team that would get the 1st wildcard (although it is still technically possible for one of the Jays/Yankees to miss the playoffs). The magic number for the Jays to outright win the division is now down to 10 games.
The 1st wildcard currently is held by New York but for the Jays to be in this situation New York would have to win the division. The Astros hold the tiebreaker against the Jays (3-4). If Toronto and the Astros finished tied for the wild-card spots the Astros would get WC1 and the Jays would get WC2 and no tie-breaker game would be played. If the Astros win their division the Jays do hold the tiebreaker against the Rangers (4-2) and the Jays would get home-field in the wildcard game. The magic number for the Jays to outright get the 1st wild-card slot is down to 6 games.
The 2nd wildcard is currently held by the Astros but the teams still fighting for the playoffs are the Twins, Angels, Indians and Orioles. The Jays hold the tiebreakers against the Twins (4-2), Angels (5-2), Indians (4-3), and Orioles (9-6). If the Jays finish tied with any one of these teams for the 2nd wild-card they would be fighting for their playoff lives in a one-game home field showdown. The magic number for the Jays to outright win the 2nd wild-card is down to 4 games.
Where things get really interesting is if the Jays finish in a 3 or 4-way tie for the playoffs.
Say the Yankees, Blue Jays and Astros all finish with the same record and are tied for the AL-East and the 2nd wild-card spot. The Jays would play a 1-game playoff game for the division against the Yankees. The loser of that game would then play the Astros in a one-off game the next night to determine the 2nd-wild-card team. The wild-card game would then be played the very next day and that team likely has burned through their top 2 pitchers heading into the series against the top team in the American League.
| Team | | Remaining | | Magic Number |
| C - Royals | | 11 | | 10 |
| E - Blue Jays | | 10 | | N/A |
| WC1 - Yankees | | 11 | | 8 |
| W - Rangers | | 11 | | 7 |
| WC2 - Astros | | 9 | | 3 |
| Twins | | 11 | | 3 |
| Angels | | 10 | | 2 |
| DIVISION | | | | 8 |
| WC1 | | | | 3 |
| WC2 | | | | 3 |
